Iraq Between the Millstones of Axes: A Geography for Others’ War
Haval Ali – Activist
In March 2026, the Middle East faced one of its most dangerous historical turning points. The joint attacks by the United States and Israel on Iran have put Iraq to a severe test, where the concepts of “state” and “sovereignty” have been called into question. Iraq, still recovering from the wounds of the ISIS war, has once again become the main arena for settling scores between regional and international powers. This situation has not only jeopardized Iraq’s national security but has also stripped it of the semblance of an independent state, turning it into a mere geography for others’ wars. Iraq in this conflict is not merely an observer but has involuntarily become part of the “corridor of war. ” Israeli and American warplanes use Iraqi airspace as a safe passage to reach deep into Iran. This signifies the complete failure of Iraq’s air defense system, which, despite billions of dollars spent, still cannot protect an inch of the country’s airspace. On the other hand, instead of directly retaliating against Israel, Iran uses Iraqi territory and its loyalist groups as a “defensive shield. ” The drone attacks by armed groups on American bases in Iraq drag the country into a closed loop of “attack and retaliation. ” This situation further deepens the division of military decision-making in Iraq, especially with the presence of the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) as an Official institution that simultaneously receives orders from outside the General Command of the Armed Forces. This has turned Iraq into a state with “two armies” and “two decisions, ” fundamentally distorting the concept of state sovereignty.
The economic repercussions of this conflict on Iraq, whose economy relies 90% on oil, are facing a deadly threat. The possibility of closing the Strait of Hormuz or attacking oil fields could lead to the disruption of oil exports and the cessation of the country’s primary source of income. Political instability and American pressure on Iraq’s banking system will cause the depreciation of the dinar against the dollar and an increase in inflation, which will directly impact the daily lives of citizens. Furthermore, the flight of foreign capital and the halt of strategic reconstruction projects will increase unemployment and hinder economic growth.In this crisis, the Iraqi government pursues a policy of “evasion” rather than “confrontation. ”Baghdad merely issues condemnatory statements, whereas it should have exerted real international pressure to keep the war away from its territory. This weak diplomacy, coupled with the political subservience of most political forces who Prioritise the interests of Tehran or Washington over Baghdad’s, has made Iraq appear as a “subservient province” rather than a sovereign state. This crisis of legitimacy, where the state cannot protect its citizens from external attacks, leads to the erosion of the relationship between the individual and the state and diminishes public trust in governmental institutions.
On the humanitarian and social level, the 2026 war is not just about missiles and drones; it is a humanitarian catastrophe. The threat of attacks on major cities has created a new wave of displacement, placing immense strain on infrastructure and services. The division of the populace between supporting one axis or another has revived the specter of civil war and sectarian violence, which could tear apart the social fabric of the country. Moreover, the allocation of budgets to military sectors and the decline in revenue have pushed the health and education sectors to the brink of collapse, which will have long-term consequences for human development and the future of coming generations.
Ultimately, Iraq in 2026 stands at a crossroads: either it truly becomes a neutral and decisive state, capable of prioritizing its national interests above all else, or it becomes fuel for a regional war that will yield no gains, only destruction and devastation. The main criticism of Iraq is that after 23 years of change, it has still failed to emerge from the “transitional phase” and become a political actor rather than merely an implementing mechanism. The war between the United States, Iran, and Israel in Iraq is not just a war of weapons; it is a war to prove the existence or non-existence of the Iraqi state. If Baghdad cannot say “no” to all parties and assert its sovereignty, then history will remember it as a “geography without an owner” whose fate was in the hands of others.
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